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全球氣候變遷觀測
周佳(Chia Chou) ; 劉紹臣(Shaw-Chen Liu)
大氣科學, 2012-09, Vol.40 (3), p.185-214
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Title:
全球氣候變遷觀測
Author:
周佳(Chia Chou)
;
劉紹臣(Shaw-Chen Liu)
Subjects:
Climate change
;
Global warming
;
全球暖化
;
氣候變遷
Is Part Of:
大氣科學, 2012-09, Vol.40 (3), p.185-214
Description:
本研究主要是整理分析過去觀測資料中全球氣候變遷的相關研究,其中包括了IPCC第四次評估報告的部分重點、最新的研究報告和臺灣學者的研究,並且簡單地描述了IPCC第五次評估報告的原則和著重的地方。在平均氣候狀態的改變,地表氣溫的上升是最明顯且一致的氣候變遷,在過去百年中(1906~2005)地表溫度大約上升了0.74℃。其他相關的變化如海平面的上升和海冰的融化也都被觀測到,其中海平面在1961年至2003年間大約上升了77mm。至於降水和極端事件如颱風的改變,因為有著極高的不確定性,對於其變遷趨勢並無一致性的結論。在後IPCC第四次評估報告時期(2007年以後),對於全球水循環有了更多的研究,一般而言,全球總降水量在增加,但增加的速率仍有爭議。強降水的強度和頻率也有逐漸增加的趨勢,而且趨於兩極化,即雨季越濕、乾季越乾,但這些變化會隨著地區的改變而有所不同。至於颱風的變化,不確定性仍然非常高。IPCC在第五次評估報告改為根據大氣輻射能量的改變來設定情境。另外,IPCC在第五次評估報告中增加了強化不確定性的評估,區域氣候變遷的研究和近期氣候推估等重點。
Publisher:
台灣: 中華民國氣象學會
Language:
Chinese
Identifier:
ISSN: 0254-0002
Source:
Airiti Library
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